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OECD Cuts Global Growth Forecast Amid Trade Tensions
The OECD has revised its global growth forecast downward to 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, citing increasing trade frictions and heightened policy uncertainty, notably the impact of tariffs implemented by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.
The United States' growth projection for 2025 was significantly lowered to 1.6%. Meanwhile, the eurozone is expected to see modest growth of 1.0% in 2025. For China, the growth estimate for 2025 has been cut to 4.7%, following a projected growth of 5.0% in 2024, reflecting the impact of trade barriers and weaker external demand.
These downgrades reflect mounting uncertainty in the global trade environment, posing risks to export-driven economies and complicating the execution of monetary policy across major central banks.
ECB Initiates Rate Cut Cycle with 25 bps Reduction
On June 5, the European Central Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, responding to persistent low inflation and sluggish economic activity across member states. The ECB now projects inflation to return to 2% by 2027, with core inflation expected to average 2.4% in 2025. This marks the beginning of a potential easing cycle aimed at supporting fragile recovery trajectories in economies such as Germany and France. The move positively impacted sovereign bond markets and lifted bank equities, signaling a supportive environment for credit expansion and corporate funding, particularly in the eurozone periphery.
RBI Rate Cut Impact on Indian Indices:
A bar chart illustrating the gains in Nifty and Sensex after the RBI rate cut, highlighting sector-wise gains in key Indian indices following the RBI rate reduction, with a focus on the contributions of the banking and real estate sectors.
Eurozone 2025 GDP Growth Outlook:
A heatmap illustrating GDP growth and economic outlooks for Eurozone countries in 2025. Visualizes economic disparities among Eurozone nations, highlighting growth prospects and potential risks for investors and policymakers.
Market Response to RBI Policy Shift:
Area chart showing Sensex, Nifty, and Nifty Bank levels before and after the RBI cut. Displays index movements around RBI policy actions, highlighting market optimism and sector-specific responses following the policy announcement.
Markets reflected a cautious optimism this week, balancing central bank stimulus with persistent global growth and trade uncertainties. Investors will closely monitor inflation data and policy signals for clues on the trajectory of rate cycles and capital flows in the coming days.